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Economics and Policy

Grain Futures Markets: What Have They Learned?

In this paper, the author tests and compares the efficiency properties of wheat, corn, and oats futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBT) from 1880 to 1890 and from 1997 to 2007.

A Limited Information Bayesian Forecasting Model of the Cattle SubSector

This study follows up on the Weimar and Stillman (1990) paper by using data from 1970 to 2005 to estimate the parameters that characterizes the cattle output supply.

A Speculative Bubble in Commodity Futures Prices? Cross-Sectional Evidence

Here,the authors review the criticisms (and rebuttals) levied against (and for) commodity index funds in recent U.S. Congressional testimonies.

Comparison of Hedging Cost with Other Variable Input Costs

This study determines the relative costs of hedging with futures and options and compares these with the costs of other variable inputs.

Optimal Length of Moving Average to Forecast Futures Basis

This research compares practical preharvest and storage period basis forecasts for hard wheat, soft wheat, corn and soybeans to identify the optimal amount of historical information to include in moving average forecasts.

Commercial Grain Merchandisers: What Do They Need to Know?

Little information exists on grain merchandisers, their characteristics, and the skills needed to be successful. This research contributes toward filling this gap.

Liquidity Costs in Futures Options Markets

The major finding is that liquidity costs in futures options market are two to three times higher than liquidity costs in the futures market.

Cotton Futures Dynamics: Structural Change, Index Traders and the Returns to Storage

The results presented in this paper suggest that traditional, well-established economic relationships for cotton futures markets clearly have been disrupted during the period 2006- 2009.

Risk Classification in Animal Disease Prevention: Who Benefits from Differentiated Policy?

The authors examine how differently pig farms may contribute to the societal costs of an animal disease outbreak, how valuable this information is to different stakeholders, and how it can be used to target risk management measures.

Capital Service Flows: Concepts and Comparisons of Alternative Measures in U.S. Agriculture

In this study the authors review methods commonly used to measure capital service flows, and outline important assumptions used in constructing such measures.